Ostin 11.12.2013
IBM:ää hintaan 176,25$. Hinta on tippunut edelleen, joten olisi ollut viisasta odottaa.
IBM:n arvostuksen
laskeminen on mielestäni aika vaikeaa. Sille saa helposti ihan huikeita lukuja
esimerkkinä yhdistämällä PEG-luvun ja pääoman tuoton. ROE on saatu korkeaksi taseeseen
jemmattujen osakkeiden vuoksi. Asiasta voi lukea hyvän kirjoituksen:
Jemmattujen osakkeiden vaikutus. Osakekohtaiset arvostukset ovat IBM:llä
maltillisia lukuun ottamatta P/B:tä, mm. P/E 12.
Olen noin vuosi
sitten tehnyt DCF-laskelman IBM:n arvostuksesta ja olin tyytyväinen, kun
päädyin noin turvamarginaalilla 185 $ hintaan, joka Warren Buffettin
keskihankintahinta. Diskonttauskorolla 10% hinta oli noin 200 $ ja käytin
kasvuna varovaista 3%. IBM:n kassavirta on tippunut hivenen, mutta osakekohtainen
kassavirta on edelleen kasvanut. Nykyisellä omien osto ohjelmalla osakekohtainen
tulos kasvaa lähes 10%, vaikka varsinainen tulos jurraisi paikallaan.
IBM:llä on ollut 2013/Q3:lla
ongelmia Kiinan liikevaihtonsa kanssa. Syynä voi olla Jenkkiyhtiöiden
vakoilusoppa. Noudattelen Buffettin ohjetta. ”Paras hetki ostaa loistavaa yhtiötä,
kun sillä väliaikaisia ongelmia.” Lisäksi Euro on vahvistunut jatkuvasti
dollaria vastaan. Vahvistuminen voi toki jatkua, kun USA:n velkakatto on
jälleen tulossa vastaan ensi vuoden helmikuussa.
IBM:stä muualla:
Thanks so much for the link to my IBM stock analysis. I like IBM at current prices but I want to wait for lower prices before I'd add more as my last purchase was around $174. I agree on buying great companies when they're going through issues. Great companies and great management will find a way to reinvest themselves. If you don't believe that's possible look at what IBM has done over it's history. Any time you can pick up shares of a company that WB bought for less than his price, that's probably going to be a win.
VastaaPoistaYou have earned link yourself, it is great analysis. Reason why I want to link this analysis is I have calculated DCF with 3% growth rate and you have used 10%. On the other hand there with current buy back program IBM result per grow 10% per share with out any grow result. I have calculated fair price approximately 200$, you have ended result 363$. This reminds me great great potential of IBM. If I have to bet IBM price after two years, I more likely choose your calculated value than my own.
VastaaPoistaI have very similar feeling about IBM price. One buying now is Euro-Dollar relatio. I get benefit versus recent times. I don't see euro area economy has gone better than US, vice verca. Now there fear of US loan situation. Now I cannot guess, is it possible to buy as low price in euros as it is now.
Thanks your comment also, it is well come. It great to have comments from foreigners.
It always amazes me the reach that the internet provides. There's lots of potential for IBM, they've been switching towards a more service oriented, and therefore higher margin business. There's going to be bumps along the way, but given their large scale and huge cash flow they can tread water for a few years and come out way ahead down the line. And the best part is that since there's so much free cash flow, that just through buybacks and dividends you can expect solid returns.
PoistaI agree with that. I also like IBM business is more focused on companies, not individual people. Companies need reliability and quality and they ready pay high quality. Individual people can easily jump from product to other. They can test "Chinese quality". Big company cannot do that. Their system must work all time and they very easily get big losses from mistake of data system.
VastaaPoista